Double Top / Bottom Backtesting Update-6

on 7th oct, it gave 812.5 dollar profit in 23 trades

Double Top / Bottom Backtesting Update-5

on 8th oct, the strategy made 437.5 dollar profit in 23 trades.

Double Top / Bottom Backtesting Update-4

on 11th oct the day ended in 812.5 dollar profit through 18 trades. All the trades were based on double top strategy mentioned in the blog.

Double Top / Bottom Backtesting Update-3

62.5 dollar loss in 19 trades on 12th oct on the basis of this double top trade system

Double Top / Bottom Backtesting Update-2

on 13 oct this trade system gave 875 dollars profit in 22 trades.
in the above anapshot taken from my excel file, second column is time(GMT +5:30) second column tells profit or loss in that trade(1 being win, 0 being loss), third being loss or profit in that trade, and fourth is cumulative profit in the day at that time.

Double Top / Bottom Backtesting Update-1

I backtested the double top/bottom method of trading on 1 minute chart of euro-USD forex future Dec 10 contract from 14 oct to 22 oct and got the following result.
Date Profit/ loss no. of trades
15 oct +437.5 27
18 oct +62.5 29
19 oct +812.5 31
20 oct +875 19
21 oct +562.5 25
22 oct +812.5 25
14 oct +500 18
average +580.35 24.85

The method of trading Double / Top was not in classical sense, but my own self discovered method.

Euro FX Future is targeting 1.4000 the naked VPOC

Casino Games

I was feeling bored and learned these games today
blackjack, poker, slots, craps, baccarat, video poker, roulette, sicbo, bingo

What are the top 5 components of the S&P 500 (ES contract)?

The answer is Exxon, Apple, Microsoft, Proctor and Gamble, IBM

Double Top/ Bottom Entry Rules

when we look at 1 minute candle stick chart of euro-dollar fx futures, we have a list of lows and highs made by price swings, for this double top/ bottom stategy, we will consider only those highs/ lows which have not been breached yet. If market goes to one of the previuos highs or lows, and that price level holds again, (by holding I mean when market retraces exactly after trading at that price level, not even 1 tick above or below). I will wait for that 1 minute candle to complete and then enter my short position, if market has reversed after testing a high for the second time and vice-versa. I will enter only when the market has traded at 4 ticks below that high after trading exactly at that high-level. The stop los being 1 tick above the high. and target same or more than stop loss.

Back to Double Top/Bottom

I have started trading using Double Top/ Bottom again. I will keep on sharing my Profit/ loss. This time, I have tweaked the entry and exit criteria a bit. I will share it with you soon.

Live Commentary of my trades

I must tell you, I am just a learner in the challenging world of trading, and this blog is just a documentation of that learning process.
As of now, I have done 23 trades in euro fx future, and have lost 175 dollars so far.
Now, I am long at 1.3954 with stop loss and target of 5 ticks
Target met, now only 112.5 dollar loss left after 24 trades.
Shorted at 1.3934, booked at 1.3928..now only 37.5 dollar loss left after 25 trades.
Went long at 1.3933 in eurousd dec 10, with stop loss 6 ticks below( 1 tick below the immediate low on 1 minute chart), booked profit at 1.3938.
Now 25 dollar profit after 26 trades
Now 12.5 dollar loss, because of short at 1.3930, stopped out at 1.3933
Now 25 dollar loss after 1 stop loss and 1 target met
Now 37.5 dollar profit after 32 trades.
Now 100 dollar profit after 33 trades.
Will take a break and do some backtesting on recent learning.
went long at 1.3912, booked at 1.3917, now 162.5 dollar profit after 34 trades

Fifth Trading Call

Here is my fifth trading call. The current price of euro fx dec 10 futures is 1.3817, sell it here with stop loss at 1.3820, target being the low of the day, i.e. 1.3768. risk/ reward= 3/ 52

Fourth Trading Call

If euro trades at 1.3929, go long with target at day's high 1.4001, and stop loss 1 tick below the immediate low

Third Trading Call

So far, I have given three trading calls on this blog, first was profitable, for second market did n't reach my entry point, and the third is yet to see its future. So, here it is:

sell euro dec 10 at 1.3896, stop loss of 6 ticks, and I expect the market to close at its low.

second Trading Call BeforeHand

Buy euro fx dec 10 today, if it reaches 1.3969, with a target above today's current high which is 1.4001.
where to put stop loss in this trade:-
look at 1 minute chart of euro fx dec 10 and place stop at 1 tick below the immediate low made.
Edited version:
The market has accepted this region, and above trading call does not hold value, so whoever read that call, Let me tell you, I no longer advocate buying if it touches 13969 now.

Today's Decision

As of now, I have decided to quit scalping and trade only on the basis of 2 of my trade setup, in which the entry and exit are largely based on 30 minute chart. One of them is  based on the theory of   market logic as mentioned in the book Markets and Market Logic( although the entry and exit points are decided by my self on a system discovered  by brute-force method) . and other one is totally self discovered.

one Live Trade

with a stop loss at 13876, buy euro-USD fx future(dec 10)  at current price 13901, with target at 13978.
I am writing this Live..will keep on commenting on it for stop loss.

Scalping can be profitable

making profits by scalping is possible..Click  to see

applying market logic according to the book written by J. Peter Steidlmayer Interview

applying market logic according to the book written by  J. Peter Steidlmayer Interview
I tried to apply Market logic according to this book today i.e. 7th oct , 2010 in euro-usd fx futures market. I must tell you I am basically a scalper and try to keep my stops of the order of 50-100 dollars.
Live Commentary: market opened at 13919, made a high of 13921, made a low at 13914, then a high of 13919, then a low of 13912, then a high of 13918, then a low of 13907, then a high of 13917, then a low of 13906, then a high of 13917(so far lower lows and lower highs), then a low of 13908 (higher low), then a high of 13927(breached day-high)...after breaching day-high significantly market came down to breached day-low...according to market logic, I should have shorted at breach of day low, which could have given me 15 ticks, then came back to breach day-high...now I should have gone long at breach of day high, but market retraced 11 ticks then went up 100 ticks to make a high at 14022. But was it easy to hold so far...let us see what happened in between13927(the previous high)  and 14022...market breached 13927 for first time in the day and made a high at 13933, then came back to 13917...a trader could go long at 13928, when it breached the market for the first time, or he could wait to go long against 13917 , the low made after first time breaching 13927..but market made a low at 13917 and then made a high at 13930(a lower high)..then made a low at 13911(I think most traders who were long would have cut their losses at breach of 13917 to the downside..but the market breached the current high 13933 after making a low at 13917..I should have bought  immediatelt at breach of hih this time. and this time after breaching day's high market didn't retrace and went straight up to 13980..then made a few lower lows and lower highs..after a final low at 13959, it breached earlier high and made a new high at 13988.The way I would have traded, my profit/ loss would have fluctuated like this till 13988. Had a traded on the basis of this logic.
-25-12+2-4+12-5+11+5-1-4-3-6-3-1
now let us have a closer look at what happened in between 13980 and 13988.

Learning of the Day

In this page, I have written all my learnings of the day.
Oct 7, 2010...Never trade on the basis of a logic, on which you don't have full confidence. Because, untill you have full confidence you will book early profits.
oct 8, 2010 ..Be patient in applying any setup....at fronttest it for a few days

Double Top / Bottom results continued 1

Today I didn't trade on the basis of Double Top/Bottom, because of what I have gone through in the last 3 days.
However, today's profit loss  would have been like this..       21-14+9-15+8-10 + 6= +5 tick( first 21 was a sum of 2-3 trades)

Profit / Loss Log

On 1st and 4th oct,2010,  I lost 187.5 dollars on each day, from now on, I will record my daily profit / loss here.
Date             Profit/loss(in USD)      No. of trades           Comments
1st oct                 -187                          9                   In backtesting, these methods were giving fantastic results
4th oct                 -187                         20                  I still think that this month will end in profit.
5th oct                 -287.5                      31                  loss of 225 was according to strategy, after that did some random trades
6th oct                    25                             3                   confidence in double top/bottom strategy is low, so didn't trade on that
7th oct                   -425                       21                  all the trades were based on whims and fancies, entered some good trades also, but exited early
8th oct                  -687.5                       45               there was a trade which didn't go a single tick against me, and  I scratched, after that it came more than 100 ticks in my favour, had i followed simply the startegy of trailing my stop loss above the previous bar...i would have made more than 100 ticks in that trade
11th oct                  +175                       1                  booked early profit, need to see more of such trades, then only i will be able to hold for bigger profits

The Right way to Pronouncing Om

Om

Today's Trades

As of  now, I have done 3 trades,( 2 out of them being profitable, all of the them with 5 tick risk -reward). I am in 10 tick profit (gross profit) so far. All of these trades were based on double top/bottom strategy. But, mind it, I don't use double top/ bottom in the classical sense for entry and exit.