I want to tell you, how I predict  the direction of euro dollar forex future, but, my firm has given me 2 different computers for trading and internet, and i am not allowed to import charts or anything from my trading terminal, but i need charts to discuss how to trade. Can somebody suggest me a website where can get enlarged view of 1 minute candlestick chart for a specific time-interval

KLUELESS6 IIM INDORE

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A new trading setup

I have been continuously observing this pattern. Suppose, the market after making a price low, has risen significantly above the low, and then all of a sudden it comes down like a free-fall, and breaks down the low swiftly and makes a lower low, and this lower low is at least 12 ticks(just a ball-park figure) below the previous low, while rising back it comes back very often after making a swing high exactly at the previous high. So, it is an opportunity to sell with a very small stop-loss, and a significantly larger target, you can target at least to tag the present low once again.

 The same pattern also repeats for upside breakouts too. Please give your comments below this post.(mentioning ur experience with markets and what you felt about this trade set-up)

Something about my previous blog

Although I think you can't have a logical target by using only market generated information. It is possible using fundamental news. And, I know a guy who usually gives kind of targets , and I am not sure whether he uses fundamentals or both, but, I am sure he uses technicals, but he may also be using fundamentals, I will check and tell you in my next post.

why it is easier to trade with multiple lots

I feel it is easier to trade with multiple lots. As I trade using only the market generated inforamtion, no other fundamental news or classical technical indicators, I think market generated information can only tell you which direction the price has more chances to go, so, by using it you can only know whether we shall buy or sell, but we can't predict a target for this or I should say there is no logical target for any trade, you can only define your risk. So, we shall try do the same, try to predict the direction of price, define your maximum risk, put on the trade, let it run, until the market generated information does n't tell you that market is probably gonna turn its head. But usually market does so, when market is not at the maximum profit you have seen in that trade, and sometimes it happens when even after seeing a big profit, it comes below your long position or above your short position. So, if you are trading with multiple lot size, you can scale out at various prices which are not the logical targets, but possible turning points.

Why not use the technical Indicators

It has already been established that all the classical technical indicators does not give profit in evolved markets. They may give profits in Indian markets, which are in its nascent stage but not in markets as evolved as US. So, for trading Markets in US, you have to trade logically, not by mathematical indicators. I have developed some trade systems for trading euro-dollar forex market, while working in a proprietary trading firm. They all are based on market logic, So, I hope them to give me profit in future also as they have been given me in past. 

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KLUELESS Solutions

for level 1 you just have to click on the the picture showing dice

Double Top / Bottom Backtesting Update-6

on 7th oct, it gave 812.5 dollar profit in 23 trades

Double Top / Bottom Backtesting Update-5

on 8th oct, the strategy made 437.5 dollar profit in 23 trades.

Double Top / Bottom Backtesting Update-4

on 11th oct the day ended in 812.5 dollar profit through 18 trades. All the trades were based on double top strategy mentioned in the blog.

Double Top / Bottom Backtesting Update-3

62.5 dollar loss in 19 trades on 12th oct on the basis of this double top trade system

Double Top / Bottom Backtesting Update-2

on 13 oct this trade system gave 875 dollars profit in 22 trades.
in the above anapshot taken from my excel file, second column is time(GMT +5:30) second column tells profit or loss in that trade(1 being win, 0 being loss), third being loss or profit in that trade, and fourth is cumulative profit in the day at that time.

Double Top / Bottom Backtesting Update-1

I backtested the double top/bottom method of trading on 1 minute chart of euro-USD forex future Dec 10 contract from 14 oct to 22 oct and got the following result.
Date Profit/ loss no. of trades
15 oct +437.5 27
18 oct +62.5 29
19 oct +812.5 31
20 oct +875 19
21 oct +562.5 25
22 oct +812.5 25
14 oct +500 18
average +580.35 24.85

The method of trading Double / Top was not in classical sense, but my own self discovered method.

Euro FX Future is targeting 1.4000 the naked VPOC

Casino Games

I was feeling bored and learned these games today
blackjack, poker, slots, craps, baccarat, video poker, roulette, sicbo, bingo

What are the top 5 components of the S&P 500 (ES contract)?

The answer is Exxon, Apple, Microsoft, Proctor and Gamble, IBM

Double Top/ Bottom Entry Rules

when we look at 1 minute candle stick chart of euro-dollar fx futures, we have a list of lows and highs made by price swings, for this double top/ bottom stategy, we will consider only those highs/ lows which have not been breached yet. If market goes to one of the previuos highs or lows, and that price level holds again, (by holding I mean when market retraces exactly after trading at that price level, not even 1 tick above or below). I will wait for that 1 minute candle to complete and then enter my short position, if market has reversed after testing a high for the second time and vice-versa. I will enter only when the market has traded at 4 ticks below that high after trading exactly at that high-level. The stop los being 1 tick above the high. and target same or more than stop loss.

Back to Double Top/Bottom

I have started trading using Double Top/ Bottom again. I will keep on sharing my Profit/ loss. This time, I have tweaked the entry and exit criteria a bit. I will share it with you soon.

Live Commentary of my trades

I must tell you, I am just a learner in the challenging world of trading, and this blog is just a documentation of that learning process.
As of now, I have done 23 trades in euro fx future, and have lost 175 dollars so far.
Now, I am long at 1.3954 with stop loss and target of 5 ticks
Target met, now only 112.5 dollar loss left after 24 trades.
Shorted at 1.3934, booked at 1.3928..now only 37.5 dollar loss left after 25 trades.
Went long at 1.3933 in eurousd dec 10, with stop loss 6 ticks below( 1 tick below the immediate low on 1 minute chart), booked profit at 1.3938.
Now 25 dollar profit after 26 trades
Now 12.5 dollar loss, because of short at 1.3930, stopped out at 1.3933
Now 25 dollar loss after 1 stop loss and 1 target met
Now 37.5 dollar profit after 32 trades.
Now 100 dollar profit after 33 trades.
Will take a break and do some backtesting on recent learning.
went long at 1.3912, booked at 1.3917, now 162.5 dollar profit after 34 trades

Fifth Trading Call

Here is my fifth trading call. The current price of euro fx dec 10 futures is 1.3817, sell it here with stop loss at 1.3820, target being the low of the day, i.e. 1.3768. risk/ reward= 3/ 52

Fourth Trading Call

If euro trades at 1.3929, go long with target at day's high 1.4001, and stop loss 1 tick below the immediate low

Third Trading Call

So far, I have given three trading calls on this blog, first was profitable, for second market did n't reach my entry point, and the third is yet to see its future. So, here it is:

sell euro dec 10 at 1.3896, stop loss of 6 ticks, and I expect the market to close at its low.

second Trading Call BeforeHand

Buy euro fx dec 10 today, if it reaches 1.3969, with a target above today's current high which is 1.4001.
where to put stop loss in this trade:-
look at 1 minute chart of euro fx dec 10 and place stop at 1 tick below the immediate low made.
Edited version:
The market has accepted this region, and above trading call does not hold value, so whoever read that call, Let me tell you, I no longer advocate buying if it touches 13969 now.

Today's Decision

As of now, I have decided to quit scalping and trade only on the basis of 2 of my trade setup, in which the entry and exit are largely based on 30 minute chart. One of them is  based on the theory of   market logic as mentioned in the book Markets and Market Logic( although the entry and exit points are decided by my self on a system discovered  by brute-force method) . and other one is totally self discovered.

one Live Trade

with a stop loss at 13876, buy euro-USD fx future(dec 10)  at current price 13901, with target at 13978.
I am writing this Live..will keep on commenting on it for stop loss.

Scalping can be profitable

making profits by scalping is possible..Click  to see

applying market logic according to the book written by J. Peter Steidlmayer Interview

applying market logic according to the book written by  J. Peter Steidlmayer Interview
I tried to apply Market logic according to this book today i.e. 7th oct , 2010 in euro-usd fx futures market. I must tell you I am basically a scalper and try to keep my stops of the order of 50-100 dollars.
Live Commentary: market opened at 13919, made a high of 13921, made a low at 13914, then a high of 13919, then a low of 13912, then a high of 13918, then a low of 13907, then a high of 13917, then a low of 13906, then a high of 13917(so far lower lows and lower highs), then a low of 13908 (higher low), then a high of 13927(breached day-high)...after breaching day-high significantly market came down to breached day-low...according to market logic, I should have shorted at breach of day low, which could have given me 15 ticks, then came back to breach day-high...now I should have gone long at breach of day high, but market retraced 11 ticks then went up 100 ticks to make a high at 14022. But was it easy to hold so far...let us see what happened in between13927(the previous high)  and 14022...market breached 13927 for first time in the day and made a high at 13933, then came back to 13917...a trader could go long at 13928, when it breached the market for the first time, or he could wait to go long against 13917 , the low made after first time breaching 13927..but market made a low at 13917 and then made a high at 13930(a lower high)..then made a low at 13911(I think most traders who were long would have cut their losses at breach of 13917 to the downside..but the market breached the current high 13933 after making a low at 13917..I should have bought  immediatelt at breach of hih this time. and this time after breaching day's high market didn't retrace and went straight up to 13980..then made a few lower lows and lower highs..after a final low at 13959, it breached earlier high and made a new high at 13988.The way I would have traded, my profit/ loss would have fluctuated like this till 13988. Had a traded on the basis of this logic.
-25-12+2-4+12-5+11+5-1-4-3-6-3-1
now let us have a closer look at what happened in between 13980 and 13988.

Learning of the Day

In this page, I have written all my learnings of the day.
Oct 7, 2010...Never trade on the basis of a logic, on which you don't have full confidence. Because, untill you have full confidence you will book early profits.
oct 8, 2010 ..Be patient in applying any setup....at fronttest it for a few days

Double Top / Bottom results continued 1

Today I didn't trade on the basis of Double Top/Bottom, because of what I have gone through in the last 3 days.
However, today's profit loss  would have been like this..       21-14+9-15+8-10 + 6= +5 tick( first 21 was a sum of 2-3 trades)

Profit / Loss Log

On 1st and 4th oct,2010,  I lost 187.5 dollars on each day, from now on, I will record my daily profit / loss here.
Date             Profit/loss(in USD)      No. of trades           Comments
1st oct                 -187                          9                   In backtesting, these methods were giving fantastic results
4th oct                 -187                         20                  I still think that this month will end in profit.
5th oct                 -287.5                      31                  loss of 225 was according to strategy, after that did some random trades
6th oct                    25                             3                   confidence in double top/bottom strategy is low, so didn't trade on that
7th oct                   -425                       21                  all the trades were based on whims and fancies, entered some good trades also, but exited early
8th oct                  -687.5                       45               there was a trade which didn't go a single tick against me, and  I scratched, after that it came more than 100 ticks in my favour, had i followed simply the startegy of trailing my stop loss above the previous bar...i would have made more than 100 ticks in that trade
11th oct                  +175                       1                  booked early profit, need to see more of such trades, then only i will be able to hold for bigger profits

The Right way to Pronouncing Om

Om

Today's Trades

As of  now, I have done 3 trades,( 2 out of them being profitable, all of the them with 5 tick risk -reward). I am in 10 tick profit (gross profit) so far. All of these trades were based on double top/bottom strategy. But, mind it, I don't use double top/ bottom in the classical sense for entry and exit.

wow !!!

Yesterday, I made 387 dollars in live trading using this double top/bottom method in 12 trades.

Good Article

The equation for forex market success is this: 

Simple Logical Trading System + Discipline in Execution = Forex Trading Success 

the fact is forex is a combination of mindset and method and you need both. 

Now that is simple - but most traders don't even get the first bit right i.e. getting a logically based system to win. 

 

Even if you have a logically based forex trading system you must execute it and this means having confidence in its ability to perform. Even if you have a successful trading system, you will never follow it if you don't understand it and have confidence. 

The reason for this is you are going to have to trade through a losing period and this requires discipline and discipline is what you need, to turn a good trading system into a profitable reality. 

This will Inspire You!

Now you understand that trading success comes from a simple method and understanding then you will see how effective this combination is in this story. 

Richard Dennis a famous trader set out to prove that anyone could learn to trade, so he took a group of people who had never traded before and taught them in 14 days. 


This was a group that included - both sexes, young and old and the group had diverse occupations and varied from a security guard to an actor yet, they went on to make hundreds of millions of dollars and go down in trading history. 

Dennis taught them a very simple method, basically a breakout long term trend following system - but he knew that was not enough - he needed to make them understand it, have confidence in it and trade it with discipline. 

Why and How you Can do it 

Now you may not become as rich as these traders life isn't like that but Dennis proved anyone can trade, the basics are easy, the understanding and discipline is the hard but you can learn if you want to.

The markets at the end of the day don't beat the trader the trader beats himself 

A Huge Welcome to Trade Logically

I extend my heartiest welcome to all the visitors to my blog.

Double Top / Bottom results continued

on 13th sep 13 tick profit in 4 trades
on 10th sep, 2010 48 tick profit in 13 trades
414 tick (5175 dollars) profit in  126 trades(11 days) .... 3.28 ticks (41 dollars) average profit per trade
more than 450 dollars per day

Double Top / Bottom results continued

on 14th sep, 2010  12 tick profit in 7 trades

on 16th sep,2010...81 ticks profit in 16 trades
on 15th sep, 2010...53 ticks profit in 9 trades

Double Top / Bottom results continued

on 17 sep, 2007, the strategy gave a marginal profit of 7 ticks in 5 trades....but still green is green

Double Top / Bottom results continued

on 20th sep, 2010 , loss of 2 ticks in 16 trades.that again means a loss little less than 50 dollars including transaction costs.

Double Top / Bottom results continued

on 21 sep, 2010, the strategy gave -3 ticks in 11 trades, in total around 50 dollar loss( including transaction cost)

Double Top / Bottom results continued

on 22th sep 2010, the trade system gave 60 ticks ( 65 tick profit- 5 tick loss)

Double Top / Bottom results continued

That double Top method worked in euro-dollar on 24th sep also. profit was more than 1000 dollars per lot. I will backtest it for the whole september and post. waiting for your comments.

The fate of that trade

I had entered with a target of at least 9 ticks in that trade discusses in previous blog. Entry was initiated against double top, but exited after formation of double bottom with profit of 2 ticks only. Waiting for next entry.

Double Top / Bottom results

stop      profit       ratio
4            7             1.75
4           17            4.25
5           14            2.8
5           0              na
5           9              1.8
5            13            2.6
6             11           1.83
4              0             na
7               0            0
6              6            1
10             11          1.1
5               0              0
7             70            10
15             34          2.27
9                12         1.33
9           yet to know.......................I am in this trade
Till now, 76 ticks profit and 21 ticks loss...net 55 ticks profit in 15 trades, 687.5 dollar gross profit , 16.5 dollars transaction cost. So, 671 dollars net profit by 1 lot, and it is 11:00 PM.

Double Top

I had a trading idea today. The idea was to trade against Double Top or Double Bottom.
Following are the details of entry and exit in this trade system and the results obtained in 6E i.e Euro Dollar currency futures traded at Chicago Merchantile Exchange (CME) .Suppose the market precisely repeats a high (not considering 1 tick up or 1 tick down), and after making that high second time, I see two 1 minute candles continuously closing higher ; I will enter a short position with stop loss 1 tick above the high, and target same as stop loss. Below here, I have furnished the results obtained on 6E Dec 10 future. Since, I am based in India, I have used Indian Standard Time (IST).
Date      Entry time(IST)  Long/Short  Stop loss(in ticks)  Possible profit  Ratio(possible profit/stop loss)
23 Sep           4:24            Long                         4                             7                         1.75
This was first trade of the day, rest will be posted on next post.
 

Key levels

Key levels to watch when you are trading E-mini S&P 500 or other equity index futures are Initial Balance (IB) High, IB low, Mid-point, IB range extension levels. I will add few more levels to this list. We can discuss later about how to use these levels in trading.

Close and VPOC at same price

First of all, I would like to tell u that VPOC stands for volume point of control, i.e. the price at which maximum no. of contracts has been traded. If the market closes at VPOC. I will find out the odds of market tagging tht VPOC on next trading day in various markets and you will be surprised by the success rate. I will also tell u the other stats like how many ticks market went against if we had taken a position at opening targeting the previous day's VPOC. I will also discuss, how to know when to enter with a target of VPOC, and what shall be our stop loss.